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URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1204BUSM363SNBR, PredictIt, 2020. * Rental Incl. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Property for sale. URL: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump’s-1st-term, Siu, Alan, and Y.C. Page 2 URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf, Goldman Sachs, 2020. 1981. We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). Hong Kong Property, Apartment for Rent and for Sale (Jan 2021) Houses (3 days ago) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). In addition, the Federal Reserve Bulletins from the time report significant disruptions to retail trade (up to one-third of the workforce out at any specific time) and especially to nonessential gatherings. “A methodological note on the estimation of time series,”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of Canada. Forecasting Business Cycles. ANU Press. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1, Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. Search for Hong Kong luxury homes with the Sotheby’s International Realty network, your premier resource for Hong Kong homes. She explains this pattern (small price reductions coincided with a large reduction in volume) as customers adopting a “wait and see” approach, whereby they avoid nonessential interactions with other people, instead waiting until the end of the epidemic to defer their transactions. US, severe flu pandemic + trade disruption. Contrasting with the theoretical studies, the empirical study of James and Sargent (2006) predicts that a severe flu pandemic would reduce Canadian GDP by 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent. URL: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006a. The underlying data are reported by Persons (1931) and would correspond with a 2.4% fall in annual GDP for a three-month pandemic, given that industrial production is ordinarily more volatile than GDP. Happy Valley properties for Sale, Happy Valley apartments for Sale information provided by Hong Kong Homes, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. “Has SARS Infected the Property Market? McKibbin, Warwick J., and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html, Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html, Persons, W.M., 1931. Retrieved February 28, 2020. During standard recessions, home prices and transaction volumes may fall but this is not always the case (e.g. Trade was mainly unaffected. At the start of the 2010s, median home prices across the Hawaiian islands had fallen to $450,124, down from a pre-recession peak of $537,100 in 2006, according to the online real estate database Zillow. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17785. Whether selling, buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119007000095, Zillow Transaction and Assessment Dataset (ZTRAX), Bold 2021 Predictions: A Stronger Housing Market Across the Board, A Third of Rental Listings are Offering Concessions -- And it Appears to be Working. Working paper version URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3828.pdf, Lee, Jong-Wha, and Warwick J. McKibbin, 2012. Retrieved on Mar. Search for real estate in Hong Kong and find real estate listings in Hong Kong. Retrieved March 2, 2020. Zillow, Inc. has a real estate brokerage license in multiple states. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. Hong Kong's Richest. March report from Zillow that looked at the 1918 influenza outbreak in U.S. cities, and Hong Kong’s experience with SARS in 2003. They find that the severe 1918 pandemic reduced annual GDP by 0.5% in 1918, with smaller effects from the other two mild pandemics. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. Siu, Alan, and Y.C. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Both datasets are obtained from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. realtor.com® is the official site of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc., a subsidiary of News Corp. Coincided with a recession. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. Prepare for your home search with recent sales, real estate comps, photos, and more. Kennedy, Steven, Jim Thompson, and Petar Vujanovic. Residential Commercial. URL:  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf, Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. Quick recovery to trend after end of pandemic. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. This episode illustrates a particularly strong “wait and see” pattern similar to what happened during the SARS outbreak–customers are not going to walk-throughs or closing on transactions in person. “The Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong.” Asian Economic Papers 3:1, pages 62-83. They find a reduction to Australian GDP of about 6%. McGill-Queen’s Press. “The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic.” Mimeo, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Department of Finance, Government of, https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034577651-eng.pdf. 6% loss of annualized GDP, of which 1.75% is due to trade disruption. Importantly, she also finds that the onset of the SARS epidemic coincides with a 72% reduction in transaction volumes for these estates. ... the real estate market, taking a huge hit and failing to recover. The original source of these data is the Bank of International Settlements (2020). Find out what homes are worth in Hamburg, NY. The survey, which divides median house prices by gross annual median household income, found Hong Kong to clock in at 18.1. Coincided with drawdown surrounding end of World War I and a recession. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. It is difficult to precisely forecast the probability of an epidemic-related downturn and/or how such a downturn could provoke a standard recession because this depends on how COVID-19 progresses and how this progress interacts with preexisting recession risks and policy responses (ranging from doing nothing to shutting down entire cities for months at a time). By the time that SARS hit in February 2003, the Hong Kong real estate market had already experienced a downward trend in transactions and in a real residential price index. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 2020, via FRED Database. Richard Wong, 2004. 63(1), pages 74-05. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. We have 8 luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. URL: https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/88855/1/content.pdf, Wong, Grace, 2008. Malaysia's Richest. realtor.com recommends that you independently verify any information before relying on it. Jim Cramer: Zillow Looks Maxed Out, Twilio and Etsy Sure Don't Zillow appears to be running out of room to grow as it morphs into a real estate broker, while … , Goldman Sachs Economic Research. “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: SARS in Context: Memory, History, Policy, ed. In a similar vein, Garrett (2007) documents severe localized effects of the 1918 pandemic in places such as Little Rock, where merchants reported a 40-70% decrease in sales during the pandemic, and Memphis, where a pandemic-induced labor shortage disrupted operations. Proposed Health Care Changes: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Pains. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. While official data are still not yet ready for January or February 2020, unofficial data reported by Brown (2020) at Marketwatch indicate that Chinese house prices remained stable from December to January (+0.27%) although the volume of transactions has fallen by 90 to 98% from normal. PropGOLuxury offers the greatest selection of Hong Kong luxury homes for sale and Hong Kong luxury homes for rent on a convenient property listing portal. We feature the most sought-after properties in prime locations. Richard Wong, 2004. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Find great New York, NY real estate professionals on Zillow like Millie Jiao Hong of East Coast Realtors, Inc URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf. The SARS epidemic began in the Guangdong province of China in November 2002. Altogether, the total gap between actual and trend GDP during this period is consistent with a loss of 1.75% of annual GDP as a result of SARS, which when spread over 4 months instead of 12, represents a fall in monthly GDP of 5.1%. Similarly, Douglas Szeto and Buckle (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce New Zealand GDP by 5-10%. Jonas, Olga, 2013. Exchange rates are subject to continuous change. 4.5%-6% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior. The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. 1.6% fall in home value, 2.8% in infected areas. I have been a salesperson, a Sales Director, and a Company Director in … Both datasets are obtained from the, GDP is officially measured on a quarterly basis–we took seasonally adjusted growth rates from the. Once the epidemic subsided, GDP snapped back to its pre-epidemic trend, while unemployment took until the winter to recover. This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. 0.6%-2.5% loss of annualized GDP, depending on how customers shift their consumption behavior. Get details of properties and view photos. Data available in the NBER Macrohistory database, via the St. Louis Fed FRED database. Source: National sources, BIS residential property price database (http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm). Spacious is the leading source of high-quality Hong Kong homes for sale & rent. Additionally, a report by Hatzius et al. Connect to real estate Agents in Hong Kong on CENTURY 21 Global. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Altogether, these disruptions corresponded with a fall in a monthly industrial production index from 123.4 in July 1918 to 112.2 in October 1918 (-9.5%). Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. URL: Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119007000095. Homes For Sale in Hong Kong | CENTURY 21 Global. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. The effects vary by sector–the epidemics led to people curtailing unnecessary social activities and curtailing human contact, which led to larger falls in services and (semi-)durable goods, while the effect on manufacturing is influenced by trade spillovers. The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes. Hong Kong’s property market has been in limbo since 2017 and international real estate companies like JLL believe that prices will decrease by as much as 10% to 15% in 2020. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Island Property for sale. Evidence from Hong Kong.”. ANU Press. Then, GDP fell precipitously throughout the duration of the epidemic (by our estimation, 5-6% below trend in April and May), and unemployment rose from 7.4 percent to 8.7 percent, for a 1.3 percent increase. In Asia, REA operates MyFun.com for the Chinese market and squarefoot.com.hk in Hong Kong and recently acquired a 17.22% stake in iProperty, the leading online real estate … $50M and co-living for remote workers. After Years of Decline, Household Formation Rates Were Improving Pre-Pandemic. James and Sargent also cite data from the SARS outbreak, finding that while SARS severely affected tourism, travel, and services in the short run, it did not harm Hong Kong’s productive capacity in the medium run. So, on average, if someone makes $50,000 in … “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Elsewhere in the literature, Wong (2008) comes to similar conclusions with respect to house prices. ©1995-2021 National Association of REALTORS® and Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. “A Viral Global Slowdown.”. Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. FRED URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS, Brown, Tanner, 2020. This pattern is also consistent with customers avoiding nonessential interactions, although the effect of the crisis on production and exports depends on the extent of the crisis in trading partners, and whether or not that crisis affects supply chains. It also shows raw transaction counts of secondary residential real estate transactions, not seasonally adjusted, from Midland Realty (2020). Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf, Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. Meanwhile, real property prices fell to 1.9% below trend in May and then recovered, although this fall is difficult to distinguish from other real estate price swings that are unconnected with SARS. URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic. While Hawaii is synonymous with calm and serenity for many, house prices have accelerated over the past decade. 1981. “Will there be a recession in Trump’s 1st term?” Retrieved March 2, 2020. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The most popular property types are House (593) and Apartment (2). Furthermore, trade disruptions can make the impact of the epidemic larger than it would otherwise have been. 1.75% loss in annualized GDP, or 5.1% monthly loss at peak. (2020) at Goldman Sachs shows detailed activity data from China during the current episode. We have 611 property listing(s) in Hong Kong. If macro policy responds effectively to an epidemic, then the loss in output would be smaller than if it did not respond. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. Evidence from Hong Kong.” Journal of Urban Economics 63(1), pages 74-05. Get the right zillow job with company ratings & salaries. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. 1, 2020. We took quarterly unadjusted real residential real estate prices from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website. Age and Affordability: Why an Affordable Rental Home Is More Often an Older Home, and Why That Matters, Healthy Housing: Where Higher Rents Are Correlated With Worse Health, Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Live Far From Healthy Food, Some by Choice and Some Not. “A Larger Virus Hit and Another Round of Rate Cuts.” US Economics Analyst, March 1, 2020. The Christie's International Real Estate network has complete luxury home listings for Hong Kong. McGill-Queen’s Press. Brown, Tanner, 2020. About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Hong Kong real estate values have increased six-fold since 2003 and it only saw a decline of -3.6% in 2016. Search for real estate in South Korea and find real estate listings in South Korea. Use the filters above to narrow your search for luxury homes for sale in … Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Lee and McKibbin find that their larger loss prediction is driven by the behavior of macro policy in their model. Zillow scraping bot and lead generation for real estate licenses is available here.TREC: about! Estate and find real estate properties transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months. ” Retrieved February! Statistically insignificant 1.9 % fall in home value, 2.8 % in infected areas median house prices home value 2.8... 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